But analysts say investors who bet on quick action from the People's Bank of China could be disappointed, with only an outside chance that it would follow the Fed's lead with more monetary easing of its own any time soon.
The best markets could hope for would be a further cut in banks' reserve requirement (RRR), but the odds against such an imminent move or even an outright interest rate cut are high as a recent flare-up in property and consumer inflation overshadows the urgency of policy easing.
Moreover, unlike the 2008/09 global crisis, China's labor market is still holding up well in part due to wrenching economic and demographic shifts.
Markets simply may have underestimated Beijing's tolerance of lower economic growth this year, as long as the slowdown is not too abrupt and does not spark social unrest ahead of a once-in-a-generation leadership change expected next month.
The Chinese economy will slow further in the third quarter but regain some momentum late in the year as the impact of earlier policy easing fully kicks in, according to the latest Reuters poll of economists released on Wednesday.
中文翻譯：
市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(FED,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ))本周將推出新一輪的購(gòu)債計(jì)劃.這令外界揣測(cè)中國(guó)或亦將很快放松政策來(lái)支撐其不斷放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì).
但分析師稱(chēng),認(rèn)為中國(guó)人民銀行將很快行動(dòng)的投資者可能要失望了,中國(guó)只有極小的可能性會(huì)追隨美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)很快推出自身的寬松措施.
市場(chǎng)能夠期待出現(xiàn)的結(jié)果也就是進(jìn)一步下調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率(RRR),但立即采取該行動(dòng)或者甚至直接下調(diào)利率的可能性很低,因近期房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和通脹回升蓋過(guò)放寬政策的緊迫性.
此外,與2008/09年的全球性危機(jī)不同,中國(guó)的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)仍保持平穩(wěn),這部分是由於經(jīng)濟(jì)和人口結(jié)構(gòu)的改變.
市場(chǎng)可能是低估了中國(guó)政府今年對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)放慢的容忍度.只要經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩不是過(guò)於劇烈,而且不會(huì)在18大會(huì)議之前引發(fā)社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩,中國(guó)政府可以容忍.
據(jù)周三發(fā)布的最新路透調(diào)查顯示,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)成長(zhǎng)在第三季度將進(jìn)一步放慢,但隨著稍早寬松政策的效果開(kāi)始完全顯現(xiàn),經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)在年底重獲部分動(dòng)能.
不過(guò),即使第四季經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)溫和反彈,全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍會(huì)跌落至8%以下,可能創(chuàng)下1999年來(lái)最低增速.
